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#1 Apr 25, 2020 12:11 pm

New Historian
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Covid hotspot in Bim

5 people infected at the National Assistance Board.  Probably means no loosening as we'd been hoping, probably even more tightening although I don't see what more they could possibly tighten, we tight as a duck's arse!!

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#2 Apr 25, 2020 12:45 pm

Expat
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Re: Covid hotspot in Bim

Are they front facing staff? or back room boys.

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#3 Apr 25, 2020 12:50 pm

Expat
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Re: Covid hotspot in Bim

It will be interesting to monitor St Lucia as they had fifteen out of fifteen cured, as to whether it resurfaces again.

If it does we might as well follow RD's curves and open up slowly as until there is a vaccine this thing will just get us all in the end, and we really can't lock down for 18 months.

So far one relative in New York, a civilian, a relative in the UK, a doctor, and a friend in the UK a midwife, have all had it mildly.

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#4 Apr 25, 2020 3:35 pm

gripe
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Re: Covid hotspot in Bim

NH, you got me thinking above 50 when I read the caption of your post. So, how do 5 infections amount to a "hotspot" even if the preferred number I believe anyone would like to see is "0"?

Still, let's hope for a quick solution EVERYWHERE!

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#5 Apr 25, 2020 9:25 pm

Expat
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Re: Covid hotspot in Bim

In a country with a relatively small amount of infections 5 in one place is definitely a hot spot.

In New York it wouldn't even register.

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#6 Apr 26, 2020 4:00 pm

gripe
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Re: Covid hotspot in Bim

Expat, by your reasoning, even one positive would count as a hotspot in B/dos. That to me is a wild stretch.

Here are some guides: (Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5462559/)

1.
"Despite its increasing use in policy documents, the term “hotspot” is vague and rarely defined precisely. This ambiguity can generate confusion. For instance, at the December 2014 Cholera Round Table in Kinshasa the focus was on targeting cholera hotspots; but attendees expressed considerable confusion about precisely what a hotspot was and how it differed from previous concepts like cholera “sanctuaries.” Such confusion can have significant repercussions, potentially leading to misinterpretation of policy recommendations or misallocation of resources in countries that can ill afford to do so. Hence, clarity and precision are needed in the use of this evocative term."

2.
"The importance of spatial clusters, or “hotspots,” in infectious disease epidemiology has been increasingly recognized, and targeting hotspots is often seen as an important component of disease-control strategies. However, the precise meaning of “hotspot” varies widely in current research and policy documents. Hotspots have been variously described as areas of elevated incidence or prevalence, higher transmission efficiency or risk, or higher probability of disease emergence. This ambiguity has led to confusion and may result in mistaken inferences regarding the best way to target interventions. We surveyed the literature on epidemiologic hotspots, examining the multitude of ways in which the term is used; and highlight the difference in the geographic scale of hotspots and the properties they are supposed to have. In response to the diversity in the term's usage, we advocate the use of more precise terms, such as “burden hotspot,” “transmission hotspot,” and “emergence hotspot,” as well as explicit specification of the spatiotemporal scale of interest. Increased precision in terminology is needed to ensure clear and effective policies for disease control."

3.
"However, public health, like all fields, is subject to fads in concepts and terminology. Hotspot is an evocative term for important concepts, but a useful term should not be rendered useless by imprecision or overuse. Policy makers and public health researchers should be sensitive to its multitude of uses within the health sciences, and take care in their own use of the term."

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#7 Apr 26, 2020 5:57 pm

Expat
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Re: Covid hotspot in Bim

Way too over thought.

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