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#1 Apr 28, 2020 6:45 pm

Expat
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A meteoric rise in survival rates

In the UK, they have gone from 700 and something to 813 in a whole week.   Wow, that is impressive.  Better not mention the 21,745 deaths.

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#2 Apr 29, 2020 8:05 am

Slice
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Re: A meteoric rise in survival rates

Here is something ah heard today on the news, it kinda surprise me.  America is ah quarter of the world population, but the death rate from COVID19 is 27%.

Could the world be doing something better than America? Maybe Italy is the exception.

Maybe some of trials that were given to folks as Guinea pigs, could be the cause.

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#3 Apr 29, 2020 9:30 am

Expat
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Re: A meteoric rise in survival rates

Many parts of the rest of the World did not have a jerk off for a President more worried about the Stock Market, and his re-election.

You have more deaths because restrictions were put into place way way too late, because of fantasy land Trump, and his wannabee Son in Law. Kushner.

Remember when it was comparatively fresh and RD was remarking that Grenada had an infection rate of 133 per million.... Now America is 3,129 while Grenada is still only 169. We still do not know where that l;ast set of 3 infections came from, but at least we know they are all related. When you wander round like a headless chicken passing to close this or that one, touching a hand rail, or opening a door someone else has opened you catch it.

If you don't keep your arses quiet you catch or give the bloody thing to someone else. While masks are not the cure, they help, so long as you can keep your hands off them, and sanitize them in between uses.

They may not stop you catching it, but they may stop you from passing it onto someone else, and vice versa.

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#4 Apr 29, 2020 9:54 am

Real Distwalker
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Re: A meteoric rise in survival rates

You understand that for most of the world there was no model - other than immunity acquired via infection or vaccine - that was going to stop this thing, right?  It was only a question of how many people were infected at once.  The preventative measures do not keep anyone from getting it at some point, they just spread it out.  The goal isn't that I don't get it.  The goal is that I don't get it until it is my turn in about October.

Further, the infection rate is a function of the testing rate.  Nations like Iceland and Switzerland have the highest infection rates in the world.  They are certainly not the sickest in the world, however.  They are just the world champions in testing.

Any nation that wants to have no new infections tomorrow can accomplish that by not testing anyone tomorrow.  In Iowa, the positive rate as a ratio of test conducted is about 20%.  It is like clockwork.  If tomorrow they test 10,000, there will be 2,000 cases and everyone will panic.  If tomorrow they test 100, there will be 20 new cases and everyone will rejoice.

The only comparative metric that even approximates reality is the death rate and even that is rife with dirty data.

Last edited by Real Distwalker (Apr 29, 2020 9:56 am)

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#5 Apr 29, 2020 3:44 pm

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Re: A meteoric rise in survival rates

Up until today, while I might have accepted complex interconnected societies might have a harder time to suppress it, that there was evidence that if managed and isolated containment was possible. Unfortunately my best off the cuff example was St Lucia, which had been showing 15 cases and 15 recovered for a few days.

Now out of the blue they have 2 more cases, so we have to wonder where that was lurking. Just as Grenada was well on the way to a complete clean sweep, and then we got the 2 plus 1 latest one which means we will have live cases dragging on for at least another couple of weeks, unless those inter community spreads continue to happen, in which case we could become a mini rest of the World, but despite the stupidity of some nationals, we nearly had it completely locked down too.

Which would have flown in the face of your argument.

What is worrying is the sudden up tick of new and apparently unconnected cases. Is it an extra dimension to the virus. Certainly one of the last 3 was deemed to be asymptomatic, in which case further infections might be found.

Were this simply a catch it, present with symptoms, isolate, and it diminishes, then definitely lock downs and masks and sanitise would have done for it in short order.

The discovery of the infection rate is a function of the testing rate. The infection rate itself is a function of contact, inhilation, and infecting oneself via virus into the mucosa.

When you are as far down the road as America is, it is basically past tracing, as so many people are interacting all the time, God knows where the zero patient is in any particular cluster.

While the stats are open to be questioned, China still has had a far better outcome than America up to this point. Whether you say.... Oh they have hidden some of their numbers, there is no way you can possibly compare the total F.U. that Trump engineered, compared to the comparatively miniscule  death rate in China.

And you know I am not America bashing, as Britain is FUBAR 2 times over, last time I looked recovered just over 800, it is ridiculous. Just as is their half hearted do what the WHO and CDC recommend stance.... lets wait for the science, nah you don't need masks, even though poorly protected health workers are dropping like flies. Eewww dont worry if you havent got the 95 mask, you only need it if you are intubating people... Bollocks.

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#6 Apr 29, 2020 3:53 pm

Real Distwalker
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Re: A meteoric rise in survival rates

I don't believe any statistics coming out of China and neither should you.

Grenada is an island with a small population. Of course it is easier than in a continental nation.  Even then, you are going to have to stay locked down and on curfew until there is a vaccine or it will tear you up as soon as you crack the door.

The Ohio prison system tested all the prisoners. Of those infected, 96% were asymptomatic.  I don't know how many positive cases you think there are in Grenada, but there are more than you think right now.  Many are infected but have no symptoms.

I know people all over America and I am aware of only one person who has tested positive.  She is a woman my age who works at University Hospitals.  She got a headache for a few days, a mild fever for a couple days and a touch of pinkeye.  She is fully recovered now and back at work. 

This is definitely a shit sandwich but everyday I am a bit more convinced that we may have over reacted.

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#7 Apr 29, 2020 5:21 pm

houston
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Re: A meteoric rise in survival rates

I don't think it was an over reaction, I think it was an under prepared, miscalculated reaction. Especially when there has been talk of the possibility of this type of outbreak for several years now. Too much focus on climate change and nuclear buttons.
There is no easy way out of this. In order to achieve 70% immunity, millions of people will have to die. Judging by the numbers to date, the majority of those people will be over 60 years of age.
Hurray for the millennials.

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#8 Apr 29, 2020 6:37 pm

Real Distwalker
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Re: A meteoric rise in survival rates

I don't disagree, for now.  I will reserve final judgement until we have the final asymptomatic case count.  If it is small, we did the right thing.  If it is over 50%, I would say we wildly over reacted.

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#9 Apr 30, 2020 8:05 am

Slice
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Re: A meteoric rise in survival rates

RD remember that 60.000 and growing have died. What else  do you wanna see?  The way this thing is going, when it is all said and done the figures will be over ah hundred thousand.  It might already be that,  They are saying the dead numbers are grossly under reported.

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#10 Apr 30, 2020 8:11 am

Real Distwalker
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Re: A meteoric rise in survival rates

I know but if the asymptomatic rate were, say, 50%, then 165 million Americans would get it with no problems meaning the death rate would be pretty small.   

In a perfect world nobody would die but it isn't a perfect world and more than three million Americans died in 2019.  There is a cost to keeping things shut down.  We are paying a terrible cost in standards of living more millions.  It will also cause more child abuse, more domestic violence, more substance abuse, more failure for at-risk students, more stress/anxiety caused illnesses and an increase in the suicide rate.

There are no easy answers and I don't claim to have any kind of answer.  It just isn't as easy as keeping things shut down and everything will be fine.

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