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#1 Feb 17, 2021 1:28 pm

Real Distwalker
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Are we seeing the beginning of the end?

Covid cases are crashing the world over. The World Health Organization reports that new Covid-19 cases down 16 percent last week. The number of global deaths reported also fell 10 percent.  Right now there are no known cases in my zip code.

Is it the vaccine?  Is it burning itself out?  Both?  Neither?

Governments are crediting lockdowns and public health measures but, other than the effect of vaccines, I am skeptical. 

I am hoping that this is a sign that the cursed thing is running out of steam.


Opera-Snapshot-2021-02-17-113523-ourworldindata-org.png

Last edited by Real Distwalker (Feb 17, 2021 1:36 pm)

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#2 Feb 17, 2021 2:45 pm

Expat
Active

Re: Are we seeing the beginning of the end?

If only.

My prediction, no one else's, not a single peep from my sources, this is just MY humble projection.

Until they can find real World proof that ANY of these vaccines actually stopped transmission, it ain't that. There have been numerous Graphs over the past few months that show quite clearly that the lockdowns have little to no effect. Usually the lockdowns have been introduced after the peak has occurred, and the graph line doesn't deviate as it continues it's downward trajectory.

So that leaves increased hygiene as people become more scared by the increases, better distancing for the same reason, and the natural combination of the flue virus cycle through the Winter months, and the fact that with or without vaccines millions of people have developed an immunity.

Fortunately, and I hope I am not speaking too soon, my friend who probably caught the virus on the Ward where she works, and was in isolation with her family, seems to have ridden it out without having more than just very mild symptoms, and yet again that is without vaccination. The rest of the family currently are OK too.

So what next? Again my projection. regardless of the new variants, a flat spring and summer, and a mild bump in the Autumn when people like me who have not been vaccinated who avoided it in the last season get a taste.

Flue seasons historically are cyclical, you have a bad season it kills the vulnerable, next season its a light season leaving the next wave of vulnerable people to survive until the following season when they get taken out.

But fear not, there will be a jab waiting for everyone young to old every year from now on.

Last edited by Expat (Feb 17, 2021 2:48 pm)

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#3 Feb 17, 2021 2:55 pm

New Historian
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Re: Are we seeing the beginning of the end?

That's a very short term graph.

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#4 Feb 17, 2021 4:44 pm

Real Distwalker
Active

Re: Are we seeing the beginning of the end?

If the vaccines impart immunity then the vaccines will prevent the vaccinated from being contagious.  That is how the human immune system works.  It is eliminates the virus from the body.  If you are contagious, then you aren't immune.

Typhoid Mary wasn't immune. She was an asymptomatic carrier.  She had no immunity to typhoid.  She just didn't have symptoms.

It's not like people who have had chicken pox and are now immune are spreaders of chicken pox.  That's not how it works.

Call me Pollyanna if you want, I think this is the beginning of the end.  I think between the people who have had it and those who are immune, it is becoming more difficult for it to spread.

Do I think it will completely disappear?  Of course not.  I think the pandemic will end by late spring.

Here is my county in Iowa.




Opera-Snapshot-2021-02-17-144344-c19-linncountygis-linncounty-gis-hub-arcgis-com.png

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#5 Feb 17, 2021 7:29 pm

New Historian
Active

Re: Are we seeing the beginning of the end?

"I think this is the beginning of the end."

Oh the double meaning of THAT phrase lol! Late spring? Late summer maybe, but don't confuse your world (ie the rich world) with the whole world (ie the rest of us). Like polio and every other disease before this one, it won't go away until it goes away from the whole world.

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#6 Feb 17, 2021 10:16 pm

Expat
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Re: Are we seeing the beginning of the end?

New Historian wrote:

"I think this is the beginning of the end."

Oh the double meaning of THAT phrase lol! Late spring? Late summer maybe, but don't confuse your world (ie the rich world) with the whole world (ie the rest of us). Like polio and every other disease before this one, it won't go away until it goes away from the whole world.


Spooky that India, which definitely is not RD's world has had a dramatic fall too.

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#7 Feb 17, 2021 10:22 pm

Expat
Active

Re: Are we seeing the beginning of the end?

Real Distwalker wrote:

If the vaccines impart immunity then the vaccines will prevent the vaccinated from being contagious.  That is how the human immune system works.  It is eliminates the virus from the body.  If you are contagious, then you aren't immune.

Typhoid Mary wasn't immune. She was an asymptomatic carrier.  She had no immunity to typhoid.  She just didn't have symptoms.

It's not like people who have had chicken pox and are now immune are spreaders of chicken pox.  That's not how it works.

Call me Pollyanna if you want, I think this is the beginning of the end.  I think between the people who have had it and those who are immune, it is becoming more difficult for it to spread.

Do I think it will completely disappear?  Of course not.  I think the pandemic will end by late spring.

Here is my county in Iowa.




https://i.postimg.cc/y36VF037/Opera-Snapshot-2021-02-17-144344-c19-linncountygis-linncounty-gis-hub-arcgis-com.png

>>If the vaccines impart immunity then the vaccines will prevent the vaccinated from being contagious.  That is how the human immune system works.  It is eliminates the virus from the body.  If you are contagious, then you aren't immune. <<

Things change by the day, but in the initial trials the vaccinated people were not immune, that was how they decided it increased your protection from serious symptoms.... That was around 9 or 11 people who fitted into their criteria, blowing out the other 3000 odd who were also vaccinated out of the 15000 or so in the vaccinated group by the time the results were sort of published..... For some reason why the 3000 odd other similarly vaccinated trialists were not good enough to be used was not explained..

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#8 Feb 18, 2021 11:46 am

Slice
Active

Re: Are we seeing the beginning of the end?

Real Distwalker wrote:

Covid cases are crashing the world over. The World Health Organization reports that new Covid-19 cases down 16 percent last week. The number of global deaths reported also fell 10 percent.  Right now there are no known cases in my zip code.

Is it the vaccine?  Is it burning itself out?  Both?  Neither?

Governments are crediting lockdowns and public health measures but, other than the effect of vaccines, I am skeptical. 

I am hoping that this is a sign that the cursed thing is running out of steam.


https://i.postimg.cc/gkmgv42t/Opera-Snapshot-2021-02-17-113523-ourworldindata-org.png

We been there before.  I do realize things are ah bit different now, but ah still taking ah wait and see attitude.

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